CBC News reported on October 21 that traders are now pricing a rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week. They put an 87% chance on a quarter-point increase on October 28, up from 70% earlier this week. The policy rate has not moved. It is still 2.25%.
If you have a mortgage in Greater Vancouver, or you are about to need one, that gap is what I would watch. An 87% reading is a market bet. It is not the decision.
Who flipped, and who has not
The Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025, when the Bank cut it by 0.25 percentage points from 2.50%. Seven scheduled decisions since then, through September 2, 2026, have left it there. October 28 is next, with a Monetary Policy Report. A hold that day would be an eighth straight hold.
CBC says the Bank has not raised its policy rate since July 2023. A Bloomberg survey still points to another hold. What changed this week is that the Bank of Montreal, RBC Dominion Securities and Desjardins Group each flipped their October 28 call from a hold to a hike, CBC reports.
Those 87% and 70% figures are from the overnight swap market, via Bloomberg data cited by CBC. Traders use that market to bet on the future policy rate. It is not a vote by the Bank, and it can move again before Wednesday.
On Saturday, Governor Tiff Macklem said there is "no resolution in sight for the conflict in the Middle East." CBC reports he has warned the Bank may need to raise borrowing costs if energy prices stay high.
Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, wrote on Monday: "It's not a slam dunk call, but there is probably enough supporting evidence for a hike."
I covered Monday's B.C. inflation numbers in B.C. inflation held at 3.0% as Canada's rose to 3.1%. CBC says higher fuel prices have not yet spilled in a meaningful way into the rest of the economy. The Bank's business survey, out the same day, found firms bracing for higher prices.
What a hike would change
A higher overnight rate lifts payments on a variable-rate mortgage right away. A new fixed rate is priced off the bond market, so it can move before the Bank speaks. CBC's mortgage and debt sources say fewer people would qualify, which shifts bargaining power toward buyers who can still get financing.
Scott Terrio, manager of consumer insolvency at Hoyes Michalos & Associates, told CBC: "The housing market is kind of on its knees right now, and rising rates is like tossing a drowning guy an anchor."
Ben Rabidoux of Edge Realty Analytics told CBC that home-sales volume across Canada is at a 25-year low, and that sales per person are "already back to 1990s levels." That is a national comment, not a count for Coquitlam, Port Moody or Port Coquitlam.
CREA's October 16 forecast calls for 444,530 Canadian MLS sales in 2026, down 5.2% from 2025. CREA pointed to higher fixed mortgage rates and "a notably more hawkish tone from the Bank of Canada." The same forecast has British Columbia's average price down 0.8% in 2026. That is CREA's projection, not a price for a home in the Tri-Cities, BC.
What this means for you
If you are buying: ask your lender what you qualify for today, and what the payment looks like a quarter point higher. A rate hold, when a lender offers one, lets you keep shopping through October 28. Price the home from recent sales nearby. Looking for a realtor in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam or Port Moody? My guide for home buyers explains how I work with someone writing a first offer.
If you are selling: a buyer who was stretching may pause if borrowing costs rise. I would not change a list price because of a headline. Sort out the payment before you accept an offer that still needs financing.
If you are renting, or you are a newcomer: this headline does not change the rent on a listing this week. Set your monthly budget and your commute before you book a flight to Greater Vancouver. My guide to relocating to Greater Vancouver covers neighbourhoods from Vancouver out to the Tri-Cities, BC.
My relocation rental service for tenants covers all of Greater Vancouver. The fee is $1,500 plus GST, paid by the tenant: $750, non-refundable, at the start, and $750 once a rental is secured. Reach out 4 to 6 weeks before the move.