Statistics Canada released the September Consumer Price Index on October 19. Canada's all-items CPI rose 3.1% from a year earlier, after a 3.0% increase in August. In British Columbia, the 12-month change stayed at 3.0%.
Gasoline did most of the lifting. The line I watch for clients in Greater Vancouver is shelter. That is the one that sits next to a mortgage payment or a rent cheque in the Tri-Cities, BC.
What moved, and what did not
Gasoline prices were 27.8% higher than a year earlier. In August that yearly increase had been 22.8%. Statistics Canada says crude oil reached its highest level since May, amid ongoing uncertainty about the wars in the Middle East. Energy prices rose 19.0% year over year, after a 15.4% gain in August.
Take gasoline out, and the CPI rose 2.2%, after 2.4% in August. Month to month, the national CPI rose 0.1%. On a seasonally adjusted basis it rose 0.4%.
British Columbia did not follow that national month. From August to September, B.C.'s CPI fell 0.2%. The 12-month rate was 3.0% in August and 3.0% again in September. Statistics Canada says prices rose at a faster yearly pace in five provinces, mainly because of gasoline and fuel oil. B.C. was not one of those five.
This release does not publish a separate rate for Vancouver, Coquitlam, Port Moody or Port Coquitlam. I will not invent one. B.C.'s 3.0% is the closest official reading we have for Greater Vancouver this month.
Shelter, rent and mortgage interest
Shelter prices rose 1.8% year over year, up from 1.5% in August. Statistics Canada points to faster growth in homeowners' home and mortgage insurance (4.9%) and homeowners' maintenance and repairs (1.2%), plus fuel oil and other fuels, up 57.8% year over year after 43.7% in August. The agency says that fuel-oil increase had a greater impact in Atlantic Canada, where fuel oil is more widely used.
Two owned-home measures fell at the same yearly rate as in August. The homeowners' replacement cost index was down 1.9%. The mortgage interest cost index was down 0.2%. That figure is a national price index, not a quoted mortgage rate.
Rent rose 2.8% year over year, matching August.
Food purchased from stores rose 1.7% year over year, after 2.8% in August. Statistics Canada says that is the smallest yearly grocery increase since May 2024 (1.5%). Grocery prices are still up 33.0% since September 2020.
The rate decision on October 28
The Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is 2.25%. It has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025, when the Bank lowered it by 0.25 percentage points from 2.50%. The Bank left it unchanged on September 2, 2026. The next announcement is Wednesday, October 28, with a Monetary Policy Report.
September's CPI is the latest inflation reading before that date. The October CPI comes out Monday, November 16.
I am not going to predict October 28. If you have a variable-rate mortgage, the overnight target is the number to watch that day. This release does not quote a five-year fixed rate, and I will not invent one.
What this means for you
If you are buying: price the home from recent sales nearby, then run the payment at a rate you can live with now. B.C. inflation holding at 3.0% does not say what a townhouse in Coquitlam or a condo in Port Moody is worth this week. Looking for a realtor in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam or Port Moody? My guide for home buyers is where I keep notes on those neighbourhoods, including a first purchase.
If you are selling: split the headline into gasoline and shelter. The 3.1% figure is an energy story. Shelter at 1.8% is slower, and it still does not set your sale price. Higher insurance and repair costs inside that index are a carrying-cost fact, not a forecast.
If you are renting, or you are a newcomer: the 2.8% figure is the national CPI rent index. It is not the asking rent on a listing in the Tri-Cities, BC, and it is not the lease you will sign. Local asking rents are a different measure, which I covered in Vancouver asking rents rose in September, still below last year. If you are moving here, set the monthly number and the commute before you book the flight. My guide to relocating to Greater Vancouver walks through neighbourhoods from Vancouver out to the Tri-Cities, BC.
If you want help finding a place before the move, my relocation rental service for tenants covers all of Greater Vancouver. The fee is $1,500 plus GST, paid by the tenant: $750, non-refundable, at the start, and $750 once a rental is secured. Reach out 4 to 6 weeks before the move.